President-elect Trump’s inauguration is expected to usher in immigration-related actions of various kinds. What will actually happen and when, in the short term and over the long term? Only time will tell. Discussion and preparation on both sides have been wide-ranging. According to reports, highlights include:

  • Deportations. The incoming “border czar,” Tom Homan, has said Chicago could be an early target for deportation operations, although later he appeared to walk that back following leaks of the details. Noting that a goal of the Trump administration is to create “shock and awe,” he also said “there’s gonna be a big raid all across the country. Chicago is just one of many places.” Sources said U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has been putting agents in place and has readied plans to conduct operations in major cities starting shortly after inauguration. On January 18, Mr. Homan said that the incoming administration “hasn’t made a decision yet” about whether Chicago would be targeted first and is “looking at this leak and will make [a] decision based on this leak. It’s unfortunate because anyone leaking law enforcement operations puts officers at greater risk.” President-elect Trump said earlier this weekend that mass deportations would “begin very early, very quickly,” adding that “I can’t say which cities because things are evolving. And I don’t think we want to say what city. You’ll see it firsthand.” In terms of priority, he said, “We have to get the criminals out of our country. And I think you would agree with that. I don’t know how anyone could not agree.” Sources have said that “sanctuary” jurisdictions would be targeted. In addition to Chicago, New York City, San Francisco, Miami, and Los Angeles have been mentioned.

According to CNN, in a briefing with senior Republican lawmakers on Sunday afternoon (January 19), Stephen Miller, chosen by President-elect Trump to be his deputy chief of staff for policy, confirmed “elements of a long-planned, sweeping suite of immigration actions, including Trump invoking a national emergency at the border as a way to unlock funding from the Defense Department for the administration’s use.” CNN also reported that President-elect Trump will “direct his administration to move to reinstate his first-term Migrant Protection Protocol policy, which is more commonly referred to as ‘Remain in Mexico.’ Trump will act to reinstate a series of his first-term immigration policy directives and actions that President Joe Biden rescinded on his own first day in office in 2021.”

It’s unclear when or how big deportation operations will be or where those slated for deportation will be taken. Also unclear is how much the operations will cost and how much legal pushback will occur.

  • Wild card: state/legal actions. California and other states have not been passively awaiting the inauguration. California’s Governor Gavin Newsom and state Democrats, for example, reached agreement on a $50 million deal to defend against federal anti-immigrant efforts and detentions, and fund grants for nonprofits to help with legal issues and immigrant support. Related bills would need to pass the California Assembly. “This funding agreement cements California’s readiness to serve as a bulwark against Trump’s extremist agenda,” said Scott Wiener, a state senator and budget chair from San Francisco. United Farm Workers officials warned of “rogue” agents in California who appear to be already engaging in sweeps and arrests: “This is part of a new political climate of people in some of these agencies feeling emboldened.” Reportedly, in Trump’s first term, California spent at least $41 million suing the Trump administration. Some commentators predict a backlash against California from the Trump side on various fronts.

The New York City Comptroller’s Office released a report, Protecting New York City. Comptroller Brad Lander said that the possible “mass deportation of hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers” poses a “grave threat.” Comptroller Lander also led a roundtable of civic, business, labor, religious, and community leaders “to discuss how to best prepare to protect New York City and New Yorkers who may be targeted by the policies of the incoming Trump Administration.”

Organizations like the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) also have been working on legal strategies to fight mass deportations and protect immigrants. For example, the ACLU said it has plans to litigate against new mass detention centers and any erosions of due process for those facing deportation in the United States.

  • H-1B visa feud. An intramural argument is going on within Trump circles and the Make America Great Again base related to H-1B nonimmigrant visas. Elon Musk—a multi-billionaire CEO of Tesla and SpaceX who has been named “richest man in the world” and helped bankroll the Trump campaign—favors the H-1B visa as a way to bring in global talent. According to one report, in 2024, “Tesla won 742 new H-1B visas through the lottery, more than double the 328 it secured in 2023. In addition, Tesla had another 1,025 existing H-1B visas extended in 2024.” Mr. Musk vowed to “go to war” with those who might try to block the visa program, noting that “The reason I’m in America along with so many critical people who built SpaceX, Tesla and hundreds of other companies that made America strong is because of H-1B.” On the anti-H-1B side, Steve Bannon, who has said the visas are a way for companies to undercut U.S. workers, called Mr. Musk a “toddler” and threatened him and other like-minded H-1B supporters that Mr. Bannon and allies would “rip your face off.” He also said Musk is trying to establish “techno-feudalism on a global scale.” President-elect Trump has recently seemed to lean in favor of the Musk side of the controversy, but it remains to be seen how this issue will play out.
  • International students. President-elect Trump has commented on international students: ” If you graduate or you get a doctorate degree from a college, you should be able to stay in this country.”
  • Effects on other industries. Effects of anti-immigrant efforts could also be felt in the construction, medical, and hospitality industries, among others. President-elect Trump has commented that he has a lot of employees at his properties on visas.
  • Travel bans and extreme vetting. Also under discussion have been possible travel bans on certain groups, similar to former President Trump’s Muslim travel ban during his first term, and extreme vetting of visa applicants along with crackdowns on would-be immigrants trying to cross into the United States from Mexico.
  • Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and humanitarian parole rollbacks. According to discussions, mass designations of TPS are likely to end. The President also has authority to revoke humanitarian parole. Legal challenges are expected if the Trump administration attempts to revoke TPS before it expires for designated countries.
  • Effects on “Dreamers.” Although the previous Trump administration attempted unsuccessfully to end an earlier version of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), President-elect Trump said more recently that he “will work with the Democrats on a plan” to protect Dreamers. He said that DACA Dreamers “were brought into this country…many years ago. Some of them are no longer young people. And in many cases, they’ve become successful. They have great jobs. In some cases they have small businesses. Some cases they might have large businesses. And we’re going to have to do something with them.”

It is impossible to overstate the complexity and uncertainty of the immigration situation in the United States today, or to predict outcomes. There are many more considerations and discussions afoot. Stay tuned.